Earning

When employees in 5 hard-hit industries might get to go back to work, according to economists

Twenty/20

Tens of millions of Americans have filed for unemployment in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak, and industries like leisure and hospitality were hit the hardest, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. After four or six weeks of lockdown in some places, many employees are asking when they can get back to work.

The federal government is rolling out a three-step plan to safely reopen the economy, and states are figuring out their own economic timelines even while battling the pandemic. To some degree, though, the economy will rebound in response to  decisions made by individual consumers.

"When you look at the percentage of the population that's 65 and over," says Russell Price, chief economist at Ameriprise, "those people are going to be reluctant to want to go out to restaurants, or movies, or sporting events, or any crowded venue."

That's partly why the answer of when things will go back to normal is so complicated. Some determining factors are specific to location and how bad the outbreak has been in a particular area. Some are specific to the needs and demands of different industries. And some come back to how reluctant consumers are to leave the house.

All the same, economists gave us their best estimates as to when workers in five industries hit hard by the pandemic might be able to get back to work.

Food services

Eateries like bars and restaurants were "devastated" by the outbreak, says Ernie Tedeschi, economist at financial advisory firm Evercore, and many small businesses within the sector may be shuttering for good. That said, "I think [those that are still open] will be among the first to start gradually coming back," he says.

How, exactly, that happens depends on location. Municipalities and even bar and restaurant owners themselves taking various precautions to keep their staffs and customers safe.

Given all of that, "I would think only between 10% and 20% of restaurant workers could expect a call back by the end of June," says Tedeschi.

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Retail

Retail will a "see stronger recovery than many of the other industries," says Price. "There's not a whole lot of difference [between] going to a department store [and] a grocery store. And people are generally comfortable now with going to grocery stores."

There may be new regulations in place curtailing the number of customers who can be in a store at once, for example, "but a quarter to half" of retail workers can expect a call from their employers "on the early side, so late May, early June," says Tedeschi.

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Travel

"The segments that have various layers of interaction [between people]," says Price, "will find a slow recovery." That includes the travel industry, in which both workers and customers are constantly interacting with dozens or even hundreds of people from all over the world.

  • Hotels: Depending on where you are in the country, the opening of hotels will "be a slow process," says Price. Tedeschi believes 20% to 30% of hotel workers can expect to hear from their employers by the end of September.
  • Airlines: With airlines, Tedeschi predicts that'll be an "August, September, late summer story when some of those workers can expect to start getting some calls." He predicts 20% to 30% of airline workers will get called back to work.
  • Cruises: Cruises "may be under longer restrictions from a government perspective," says Price, given their being effective incubators of the virus if anyone on board is infected. Tedeschi believes cruises may not come back this year at all and when they do, in early 2021, 10% to 20% of their workers can expect a call back.
[Older] people are going to be reluctant to want to go out to restaurants or movies or sporting events or any crowded venue.
Russell Price
Chief economist, Ameriprise

Entertainment

  • Movie theaters: "It may be June or July before we really see any tangible rehiring of [movie theater workers]," says Price. Tedeschi believes 30% to 40% of employees of big chain movie theaters can expect to get calls back by the end of June. It's still unclear how small, independent movie theaters will fare after the pandemic.
  • Concert venues: Concert venues and clubs are "going to take a long time to come back," says Tedeschi. It's "much more likely that public health officials push concerts to outdoor venues and places where people have an easier time of maintaining some social distancing." He believes these types of venues are not likely to come back until at least the end of the year.
  • Amusement parks: Parks like Disney World and Universal Studios, which are open year-round, will "begin their recovery process later this year," says Tedeschi, "and be up to full strength next summer." Many seasonal amusement parks, however, like the Luna Park in Coney Island, New York, will either see a late start to their season, possibly with restrictions from municipalities on how many people can pass through their gates, or they may be closed for the season altogether.
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Manufacturing

Price believes that jobs in plants and factories "should be able to get back up to speed fairly quickly," adding that "the demand for those things that are being produced should be quite solid as well." Indeed, some automakers are aiming to reopen their plants in early May, and President Trump ordered meatpacking plants to remain open in April.

Tedeschi expects a quarter to a half of factory workers to be called back to work by the end of July, with more and more coming back after that.

Ultimately, many sectors and businesses will wait for word from public health officials about when it will be safe to reopen and under what conditions. "We need to get confidence from our public health experts that we can begin the process of re-interacting with one another," says Tedeschi. "Because, of course, what is an economy if not a lot of people interacting with one another and exchanging goods and services?"

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