Experts' predictions about recessions, 2020 presidential election: What today's news means for your money

Economists predict when the current recession might end, while stock strategists look ahead to market turbulence around the 2020 presidential election.


Recession and election predictions are making news today. Here's how the headlines could affect your money:

Economists watch for signs of recovery

Two-thirds of economists think America has not yet come out of the recession that began in February, according to the National Association for Business Economics. About a third (35%) predict that will happen this year while another third (34%) assume it'll happen in 2021. 

Eight in 10 of the economists surveyed see a 25% or greater chance that the economic recovery could be short-lived and send the U.S. into a double-dip recession. That said, recessions are notoriously difficult to predict

How do economic cycles work?

Video by Courtney Stith

Strategists predict how the market will react to the election

Stock market strategists are split on how the presidential election could affect the market, according to a new CNBC poll. Half of the 20 strategists polled expect the S&P 500 to decline in the month after Election Day, while five expect a rally. 

Whatever the market reaction, it's likely to be short term. Look long term and you'll see the market tends to be resilient no matter which party is in office: Since 1928, only three presidents have seen the market decline over their tenure.

Come up with a vacation day plan

Workers have made fewer time-off requests this year compared to last year due to the pandemic, according to Zenefits data cited by The Wall Street Journal. While some companies have relaxed rollover policies, others are requiring workers use at least some of their accrued days.

It's a good nudge to schedule some time off. Check company policy around rolling over or cashing out unused days, too. Creating a plan can help ensure you don't lose out — or burn out. 

Words you've heard: Double-dip recession

A double-dip recession, also called a W-shaped recession, is a set of back-to-back recessions with a brief period of economic recovery in between. While recessions are a normal part of the economic cycle, double dips are unusual: The last time the U.S. experienced one was in the 1980s, when there were two recessions between 1980 and 1982. 

Although the daily news can have an impact on your wallet, remember to take a long-term outlook when it comes to decisions on spending, saving, and investing.

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